Why Bond Yields Matter (Even If They Sound Boring)
We hope you’re enjoying some well-deserved family time this week and perhaps a little too much good food.
This week, I attended the LandPro Conference, an event focused on real estate, land, and condo development. One of the keynote speakers was Benjamin Tal and his insights were both candid and thought-provoking.
He opened his presentation with a question mark on the screen and said:
“I have no clue what’s going to happen.”
It was refreshingly honest and also a reminder of just how uncertain today’s economic environment is.
Here were a few of the key takeaways:
“Blue will be the new white”
One of the most memorable comments of the day.
Benjamin Tal suggested that AI is increasingly replacing many white-collar jobs, while blue-collar roles; trades, construction, skilled labour, are much harder to automate.
It’s a shift that could have major implications for housing, development, and the broader economy.
The Housing Market: Correction But Not Collapse
Tal believes the housing market is currently in a correction, not a crash.
If you follow the long-term trend line from before COVID, he noted that prices are largely tracking back toward that historical pattern.
However, he made it clear:
The condo market is in a deeper downturn particularly smaller units, which have seen the largest price declines.
A Supply Problem Is Coming
Another key insight:
The housing starts being reported today reflect decisions made 18 months ago. And right now?
Developers aren’t building.
Tal also commented on the recent announcement from Mark Carney, Doug Ford, and Olivia Chow to reduce development charges by 50%.
While encouraged to see all levels of government working together, he doesn’t believe a 50% reduction will be enough to significantly increase building activity suggesting it may require closer to a 100% reduction to truly move the needle.
His outlook?
Within two years, we could be facing a serious supply shortage just as demand begins to rise again.
More Industry Insights
Additional speakers, including Jasmine Young and Jeremiah Shamess, echoed similar concerns:
- A 50% reduction in development charges likely isn’t enough
- Builders are currently paying 75% less for high-rise land downtown
- 2017 marked the peak in low-rise land purchases
- It may take 4–5 years before builders begin buying land at scale again
All of this points to one thing:
Less building today often means tighter supply tomorrow.
The big takeaway from last week?
While today’s market may feel uncertain, the long-term fundamentals especially around supply continue to quietly shape what comes next.
And as always, we’ll keep you posted from the ground.
If you know of anyone who needs to buy or sell, please make sure they call Davelle.
Want to Make This Market Work for You?
As always, if you have questions about the market, or would like an updated home evaluation, we’re here to help.
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