What the Average Price Doesn’t Tell You
The latest Toronto real estate headline caught my attention.
The average GTA home price dipped below $1 million in August.
According to TRREB, the average selling price across the GTA was $993,410 in August, down 2.7% compared to August of last year. Sales were also down slightly, by 2.1%, while new listings fell more sharply, by 14.1%.
So yes, technically, the average GTA home price is under $1 million again.
But before anyone pops the champagne, let’s talk about what that number actually means.
Averages can be helpful, but they can also be misleading. When you hear that the “average home” in the GTA is under $1 million, it does not mean every part of the market suddenly became affordable. It also does not mean every buyer can now find the kind of home they want for less than seven figures.
A detached home in Midtown Toronto is not the same market as a one-bedroom condo downtown. A semi in Riverdale is not the same market as a townhouse in the 905. A large, well-laid-out condo with parking and outdoor space is not the same market as a small investor-owned unit in a building with lots of competition.
That is why I always hesitate when people ask, “How’s the market?”
The real answer is: it depends.
It depends on whether you’re buying or selling.
It depends on the neighbourhood.
It depends on the price point.
It depends on how much similar inventory is available at that exact moment.
The August numbers are interesting because they tell two stories at once.
On one hand, prices are still softer than they were a year ago. That is giving many buyers more room to breathe, especially compared to the frenzied market we saw a few years ago.
On the other hand, new listings were down quite a bit compared to last August. So while buyers may still have negotiating power, they may not have endless choice in every neighbourhood or property category.
That is where the headline number only gets you so far.
If you are a buyer, the average GTA price does not matter nearly as much as what comparable properties are selling for in the neighbourhoods and buildings you are actually considering.
If you are a seller, the average GTA price does not tell you what your home is worth. Your value depends on your micro-market: the last few relevant sales, what else is currently listed, how your home presents, and how well it is priced from the beginning.
This is especially important heading into the fall market.
September is when people tend to get serious again. Buyers come back from summer holidays. Sellers who were waiting for fall begin preparing their homes. Families start thinking about what they want their lives to look like before the end of the year.
But this fall may not look the same in every neighbourhood.
Some areas may see more inventory. Others may remain tight. Some listings may sit. Others may surprise people. Some condos may offer real opportunity. Some houses may still attract strong interest if they are priced properly.
That is why broad headlines can be interesting, but they should never be the whole strategy.
The average home price being under $1 million makes for a great headline.
But real estate decisions are not made in the average market.
They are made one property, one neighbourhood, one building, and one conversation at a time.
If you are wondering what the fall market means for your own home, your next purchase, or your investment property, we would be happy to talk it through with you over coffee.
And remember if you’d like to buy or sell, please make sure you call Davelle.
P.S. TIFF starts this week, which means Toronto is about to have that unmistakable September buzz. Restaurants will be busy, King Street will be full of energy, and for the next 10 days, the city gets to show off a little. It is always a good reminder that in real estate, people are not just buying bedrooms and bathrooms. They are buying the life outside their front door too.
My First Home: How to Buy Smart in Toronto
Know someone who talks about buying a home “someday”? Forward them a copy of our new My First Home magazine. It covers what to know, where to look, and how to buy smart in Toronto.
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