If you’ve been half-watching the Toronto market while waiting for a bell to ring at the “bottom,” here’s your reminder: nobody rings it. The only thing you get in real time is opportunity, and right now, the signs are getting louder.
What September’s Numbers Say (and why they matter)
- Sales rose 8.5% year-over-year in September across the GTA (5,592 sales). That’s not a boom; it’s a pulse.
- New listings were up ~4% year-over-year (19,260). More selection, but not a flood.
- Month-over-month, prices nudged up 0.2% on the average selling price, even as the benchmark price is still down year-over-year. Translation: the broader trend is soft, but momentum ticked slightly positive in September.
- TRREB’s Jason Mercer noted that while activity is improving, sales are still below “normal” levels for a region this size. Early days, but sales rising relative to new listings month-to-month suggests a potential small shift in balance.
Meanwhile, condos remain the most pressured segment. Multiple analyses show condo values have lagged other property types this year as new supply and investor fatigue weigh on pricing, particularly in Toronto’s core. For end-users, that is exactly where better buys are showing up.
Ground Truth From the Trenches
On the ground, more buyers are raising their hands. Not a stampede, but intent is real, especially among people who have been pre-approved, watching for a softer entry point, and finally seeing it.
What This Means If You’re Buying
You have leverage and options. Inventory remains elevated versus last year, and sellers are negotiating on price, timing, and conditions. In a hot market you win a new fridge; in this one, you can win equity. If you’re condo-curious, the spread between list and sold is widest where supply is deepest. Pair that with today’s slightly better affordability from the recent rate cut and you have a rare window to buy well, not just buy now.
Smart next steps:
- Lock a rate and budget with room for stress-tests.
- Shortlist buildings with strong reserves, healthy owner-occupancy, and sensible fees.
- Target stale listings (21 to 45 days) for maximum negotiation.
- Write offers with clear condition timelines, inspection, status certificate, financing, so you protect your downside and keep your upside.
What This Means If You’re Selling
Strategy beats vibes. With buyers selectively back, the winners are the listings that show flawlessly and are priced to the market that exists, not the one you wish we had. Expect more scrutiny on comps, carrying costs, and building health for condos.
Smart next steps:
- Price to compete, not to “test.” The first 10 days are everything.
- Fix the friction: pre-list repairs, declutter, light styling.
- For condos, lead with data: reserve fund health, recent status certificate highlights, and any major work completed.
- Offer flexibility on closing dates to widen your buyer pool.
The Bottom Line
No, this does not mean prices are off to the races. Benchmark values are still down year over year, and nobody gets a notarized “today is the bottom” memo. But sales are up, new listings are growing more slowly, and a slight monthly price uptick together signal a market that is starting to tighten at the margins, even as condos remain the most negotiable lane.
If you’ve been waiting for a sign to step off the sidelines, consider this it. The deals are out there. The question is, are you ready to grab one?
We’re Toronto Real Estate expert Realtors and we’d love to help you.
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