We finally had a few warmer days this past week and it definitely felt like the city came alive again.
Patios started filling up, parks were busy, and for the first time in a while it actually felt like spring in Toronto.
This week I spent some time digging through Outline Financial’s latest Mortgage & Economic Update and there were a few things that really stood out to me, especially as they relate to the Toronto real estate market.
First, the Bank of Canada once again decided to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25%, marking the fourth rate hold in a row. Prime remains at 4.45%. While many people were hoping rate cuts would continue this year, the conversation has shifted a little. Rising oil prices, global uncertainty, and ongoing trade tensions are making the Bank of Canada more cautious right now.
At the same time, Canada’s unemployment rate has now climbed to 6.9%, which is higher than expected, while job losses continue to add up nationally. Inflation also ticked up again to 2.8%, although much of that increase was tied to higher gas prices.
So what does all of this mean for real estate?
Honestly, I think it explains why so many buyers are still in “wait and see” mode. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now and people are trying to figure out where rates, jobs, and affordability are all heading next.
But here’s the interesting part…
Even though buyers are nervous, affordability has quietly improved quite a bit compared to a few years ago.
According to the report, the average GTA condo apartment price has fallen from approximately $726,000 in April 2023 to about $636,000 today. Mortgage rates have also improved from roughly 5.29% down to around 4.29%.
That means the estimated monthly carrying cost on the average condo is now significantly lower than it was a few years ago.
We’re also continuing to see more buyers choosing fixed-rate mortgages again instead of variable rates, likely because people simply want predictability right now.
Another thing we’re watching closely is the condo market — particularly pre-construction. The report discussed rising mortgage arrears, increasing insolvencies, and concerns around condo defaults as some buyers who purchased years ago are now facing very different financing conditions at closing.
And yet despite all of that uncertainty, there are still pockets of the market performing very well.
Well-priced houses in desirable neighbourhoods are still attracting strong attention and in some cases multiple offers. Condos continue to require more patience and negotiation, but buyers today have something they haven’t had in years: options, leverage, and time to think.
As I keep saying lately, this market isn’t impossible, it’s just different.
The buyers and sellers who are doing the best right now are the ones making thoughtful, informed decisions instead of emotional ones.
And honestly? That’s probably healthier for the market long term.
If you know of anyone who needs to buy or sell, please make sure they call Davelle.
My First Home: How to Buy Smart in Toronto
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For Sale: Beautiful 3-Bedroom Family Home (2 Bettina Pl)
Space to spread out. Space to come together. And a backyard that feels like your own private retreat. This beautifully updated family home offers 3 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and the kind of thoughtful layout that gives everyone room to breathe. A welcoming living room at the front of the home creates the perfect spot to gather with guests, while the open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room—with cozy gas fireplace—becomes the true heart of the home.
For Sale: Bright 1-Bedroom Condo in Corktown, Toronto (60 Tannery Rd #516)
Step into a sunlit living and dining space with clean sightlines and effortless flow. The open-concept kitchen keeps you connected – prep dinner, catch your favourite show, and take in the view all at once.