Spring Forward… and a Few Interesting Signals in the Market
Don’t forget — Daylight Saving Time begins tonight.
At 2:00 a.m., the clocks jump ahead by one hour, which means we lose an hour of sleep but gain longer evenings and later sunsets.
One quick public service reminder: studies show there are more car accidents on the Monday following the time change, likely because people are a little more tired than usual. So take it easy on Monday morning.
What the Latest Market Numbers Are Saying
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board released its February 2026 statistics, and while the year-over-year numbers still look softer, there are a few interesting signs beneath the surface.
Compared to February 2025:
- Detached home prices are down 12%
- Semi-detached homes are down 3.6%
- Condo prices are down year over year
But compared to January 2026, prices actually moved up:
- Detached homes +1.7% month-over-month
- Semi-detached homes +7.3%
- Condos +5.1%
In other words, while prices are still lower than last year, the short-term trend is starting to move upward again.
For buyers, that’s an important signal. Markets rarely turn overnight — they shift gradually. The early months of the year often give us the first clues.
Key Takeaways from Benjamin Tal
(Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets)
Benjamin Tal continues to be one of the most thoughtful voices on the Canadian housing market.
His big themes:
- 2026 will be a transition year for real estate.
- The condo market is currently in recession and could remain soft for some time.
- In 2–3 years, prices may rise again because very little new housing is being built today.
- The Bank of Canada may keep interest rates relatively steady through 2026.
- Governments may consider eliminating GST/HST on homes up to $1M for first-time buyers.
He also touched on global issues — from trade tensions to immigration — and how they could shape the broader economy.
- Will the Middle East war be relevant to the Canadian to the real estate market 6 months or a year from now?
- There has now been more resistance to Trump than there was for example the courts going against him when it comes to tariffs, the resistance to ICE in Minnesota and resistance to taking over Greenland
- Time is not on Trump’s side as the Midterms are coming soon and prices of goods in the US keep rising which isn’t good for his voter base
- The speed of the U.S. economy is slowing down
- 70% of the US growth is due to Artificial Intelligence
One fascinating point: about 90% of antibiotics consumed in the U.S. come from China, illustrating how complex global trade dynamics have become.
A Simple Investing Lesson
Michael Kalles President, Harvey Kalles Real Estate Brokerage shared a line that stuck with me:
“What would Warren Buffett do right now?” Buffett is famous for saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” In other words — the best buying opportunities often happen when everyone else is hesitant. Kalles joked that Toronto buyers often only want to buy when there’s a lineup at the door. And honestly… he’s not wrong. It’s a pattern we see again and again.
Benjamin Tal’s Predictions for the Next Year
One of the Post City moderator’s pointed out that during last year’s event, each panellist was asked to make predictions and Benjamin Tal came out the winner when it came to accuracy. So here are his predictions for next year:
- Buyers are waiting because prices haven’t fallen enough yet
- Low-rise homes will stabilize and begin rising again
- Micro-condos may continue to decline in price
- Many homeowners will renovate instead of moving, largely because Toronto’s double land-transfer taxes make moving expensive
What This Means for You
Markets move in cycles. Right now we appear to be in a transition period between the slowdown and the next phase of growth.
For buyers, that can mean opportunity.
For sellers, it means strategy matters more than ever.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply trying to understand what the market is doing, we’re always happy to talk through your options.
Just give us a call. And don’t forget, just call Davelle.
Want to Make This Market Work for You?
As always, if you have questions about the market, or would like an updated home evaluation, we’re here to help.
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