Rates Hold. The Story Is in the Sales.
As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady last week, with no changes.
At our sales meeting, we were once again joined by Jason Friesen, Managing Partner and Mortgage Agent at Outline Financial, who shared some eye-opening data on what’s really happening in the market right now.
We often hear headlines saying that home and condo sales are “down dramatically.” But seeing the data plotted on a long-term graph tells a much more powerful story.
Over a 30-year period, the highest number of real estate transactions occurred in 2021, with 127,313 sales. Fast-forward to 2025, and total sales dropped to 62,433.
That’s nearly a 50% decline in activity in just five years.
Why Timing Still Matters
Another chart Jason shared compared sales activity in the first half of the year versus the second half.
Historically, January through June consistently outperforms July through December in terms of sales volume. 2025 was the exception, with more activity in the second half of the year.
My read? The tariff uncertainty early in 2025 caused many buyers and sellers to pause. Once that cloud lifted, activity picked up later in the year.
Months of Inventory: The Quiet Market Driver
Jason also walked us through Months of Inventory (MOI); one of the most important indicators for understanding pricing pressure.
Right now, we’re sitting at 4.9 months of inventory, meaning that at the current pace of sales, it would take nearly five months to sell everything on the market.
Here’s the key takeaway:
- Higher MOI = downward pressure on prices
- Lower MOI = upward pressure on prices
For context, in 2021, when prices were at their peak, we had less than one month of inventory.
Not All Property Types Are Created Equal
When you break months of inventory down by property type in the 416, the differences are telling:
- Condos: 6.3 months
- Townhomes: 4.5 months
- Detached homes: 4.0 months
- Semi-detached homes: 2.3 months
This is why condo buyers currently have significantly more negotiating power than buyers competing for semi-detached homes, where supply remains tight.
Understanding these nuances, not just the headlines, is what helps buyers and sellers make smarter, more confident decisions.
What I’d Do If I Were Buying Right Now
If I were buying in today’s market, I’d let the **data, not the noise, lead the way.
I’d focus on property types with higher months of inventory, particularly condos, where selection is broad and negotiating power is real. When there are more options, patience becomes leverage.
I’d pay close attention to days on market, price reductions, and relisted properties. These are often signals of motivated sellers and opportunities to negotiate not just on price, but on terms.
When you’re ready to talk through what this means for you, I’m always here. And Remember, when you’d like to buy or sell, we’re here to help.
Want to Make This Market Work for You?
As always, if you have questions about the market, or would like an updated home evaluation, we’re here to help.
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